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The Business Confidence Index (BCI) developed by the Delhi-based economic think tank NCAER rose 29.6 per cent between third and second quarter of the current financial year on the back of rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in various countries, such as India.
The proportion of respondents anticipating that”overall economic conditions will improve in the next six months” increased by 4.8 percentage points, from 29.8 percent in 2020–21:Q2 to 34.6 per cent in 2020–21:Q3, stated the NCAER”s Business Expectations Survey (BES).
The proportion of respondents anticipating the”financial position of firms will improve in the next six months” increased by 3.1 percentage points, from 27.7 per cent in 2020–21:Q2 to 30.8 per cent in 2020–21:Q3.
The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said the BES findings are based on responses from 500 firms.
It said the 115th round of BES was completed in December 2020, during a period of”both despair and hope”
The approval and rollout of vaccines in Europe and North America were accompanied by the discovery of new mutations of the coronavirus. Indian authorities approved the Covishield and Covaxin vaccines for”restricted use” on January 3, 2021.
Meanwhile, the Indian economy continued its recovery and has been forecast to show positive growth in 2020–21:Q3.
“Business sentiments have shown the identical V-shaped pattern of a sharp drop followed by a growth in Q1 and Q2, and then a flattening out in Q3 of 2020–21,” NCAER said.
The poll also said the percentage of respondents stating that”present capacity utilisation is close to or above the optimal level” increased by 14.4 percentage points, from 58.4 per cent in Round 114 to 72.8 per cent in Round 115.
NCAER further said the Business Confidence Index (BCI) improved for all the five businesses on a quarter-on-quarter basis in 2020–21:Q3.
The BCI increased for the consumer durables industry by 26.1 per cent on a q-o-q foundation in 2020–21:Q3, for customer non-durables by 32 per cent, for intermediate goods by 37 percent, for capital goods by 27 per cent, and for the services sector by 32.5 percent.
The Reserve Bank in its monetary policy statement last week said that consumer confidence is reviving and business expectations of manufacturing, services and infrastructure stay upbeat.
The fiscal stimulus under Aatmanirbhar 2.0 and 3.0 schemes of the government will probably accelerate public investment, although private investment remains sluggish amidst still low capacity utilisation, it said.
The Union Budget 2021-22, with its push on sectors such as health and well-being, infrastructure, research and innovation, amongst others, should help accelerate the growth momentum, the RBI had said.
The central bank has projected the actual GDP growth at 10.5 percent in 2021-22.
With two made-in-India vaccines, COVID-19 vaccination drive was launched on January 16 in the country.
