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Global deaths from COVID-19 have reached 1 million, but experts are still struggling to figure out a key metric in the pandemic: the fatality rate – the percentage of people infected with the pathogen who die.
A true mortality rate could compare deaths against the entire number of ailments, a denominator that remains unknown because the complete range of asymptomatic cases is hard to measure. Many folks who become infected simply don’t experience symptoms.
Scientists have said the total number of infections is exponentially higher than the current number of confirmed cases, currently at 33 million globally. Many experts consider the coronavirus likely kills 0.5 percent to 1 percent of people infected, making it a very dangerous virus globally before a vaccine is identified.
Researchers have begun to break down that risk by age category, as evidence mounts that younger people and children are much less likely to experience acute disease.
“The death rate for people below age 20 is probably one in 10,000. Over the age of 85 it’s around one in 6,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Analysis at the University of Washington in Seattle.
What’s a”case fatality rate”?
There has been an apparent decline in death rates when measured against the amount of new infections confirmed by coronavirus testing.
Improvements in treating the severely ill and protecting some of the highest-risk groups, are also credited with improving survival.
“We are much more aware of possible complications and how to recognize and treat them,” stated Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security in Baltimore. “If you’re a patient who gets COVID-19 in 2020, you would much rather get it now than in March.”
What does that mean for people, and governments?
That highlights the need for continuing vigilance, as some states start to experience another wave of infections.
By way of example, researchers at France estimate that nation’s case fatality rate fell by 46 percent by the end of July compared with the end of May, driven by an increase in testing, improved medical care and a greater percentage of infections occurring in younger individuals, who are less likely to experience acute disease.
“Now, we’re seeing a fresh increase in hospitalizations and ICU (intensive care unit) registrations, which means this discrepancy is going to end,” said Mircea Sofonea, a researcher with Montpellier University in France. “We will have to understand why.”
