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South Africa halted Monday’s planned rollout of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccinations after data showed that it gave minimal protection against moderate infection from one variant, stoking fears of a much longer cat-and-mouse battle with the pathogen.
The coronavirus has killed 2.3 million people and turned regular life upside down for countless but new versions have raised fears that vaccines need to be tweaked and people may have to get booster shots.
Researchers from the University of Witwatersrand and the University of Oxford said in a prior-to-peer analysis the AstraZeneca vaccine provided minimal protection against mild or moderate infection from the South African variant among young folks.
“This study confirms that the pandemic coronavirus will find ways to continue to spread in vaccinated populations, as expected,” said Andrew Pollard, chief investigator on the Oxford vaccine trial.
“However, taken with the promising results from different studies in South Africa using a similar viral vector, vaccines may continue to ease the toll on health care systems by preventing severe disease.”
Britain and Australia urged calm, citing evidence that the vaccines prevented grave illness and passing, while AstraZeneca said it believed its vaccine could protect against acute disease.
But if vaccines don’t work as effectively as hoped against new and emerging variants, then the world could be facing a much longer – and more expensive – battle against the virus than previously believed.
The AstraZeneca vaccine was the major hope for Africa as it’s cheap and easier to store and transport than the Pfizer shot, making South Africa’s move a significant blow, with sweeping implications for other regions.
The so called South African variant, known by scientists as 20I/501Y. V2 or B.1.351, is the dominant one in South Africa and is headquartered in 41 countries around the world including the USA.
Other major variations include the so-called UK variant, or 20I/501Y. V1, and the Brazilian variant known as P.1.
A study of infections by the South African version showed there was only a 22 percent lower risk of developing mild-to-moderate COVID-19 if vaccinated using the AstraZeneca shot versus those given a placebo.
Protection against moderate-severe disease, hospitalisation or death could not be assessed in the study of approximately 2,000 volunteers who had a median age of 31 as the target population were at such low risk, the investigators said.
While tens of thousands of individual changes have arisen as the virus mutates on replication and evolves into new versions, only a tiny minority are likely to be important or alter the virus in an appreciable manner, according to the British Medical Journal.
While the lead investigator on the trial said that recent data indicated that protection against severe disease was probable from the vaccine, the study raised the possibility of repeated vaccination against a virus that was changing.
Professor Shabir Madhi, lead investigator on the AstraZeneca trial in South Africa, said the vaccine’s similarity to another produced by Johnson & Johnson, which reduced severe disease by 89 percent, suggested it would still prevent serious illness or death.
“There is still some hope that the AstraZeneca vaccine might perform as well as the Johnson & Johnson vaccine in another age group demographic which I address of severe disease,” he told BBC radio.
Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology in the University of Oxford, said efforts were under way to develop a new generation of booster shot vaccines which will allow protection against emerging variants.
“This is the identical issue that is faced by all of the vaccine developers, and we will continue to track the development of new variants that come up in readiness for a future strain change,” she said.
STOPS DEATH
British junior health minister Edward Argar said the AstraZeneca vaccine prevents death and serious illness and is effective against the main variants of the virus in the United Kingdom, though people might need to have a booster shot as it mutates.
He echoed Australia that is expected approve the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine within days.
“There is currently no evidence to indicate a reduction in the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccines in preventing severe disease and death. That’s the fundamental task, to protect the health,” Health Minister Greg Hunt said.
Argar said just 147 people had been known to have been infected with the South African version in Britain, though he allowed that booster shots – such as against the common flu – might be needed in future.
“It would only be normal, in a sense, as we did with the flu vaccine, to upgrade it to capture anything the virus is attempting to do to keep ahead of it.”
French Health Minister Olivier Veran said he continued to encourage the AstraZeneca vaccine, asserting it provided adequate protection against”nearly all the variants”.
