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The age of a person may not decide how likely they are infected by SARS-CoV-2, which induces COVID-19, according to a study which found that growth of symptoms, severity of the disease, and mortality are age-dependent.
It’s been shown that elderly individuals disproportionately develop acute symptoms of COVID-19 and show higher mortality.
Scientists, including those from Hokkaido University, modelled available data from Japan, Spain and Italy to show that susceptibility to COVID-19 is independent of age, while incidence of symptomatic COVID-19, severity and mortality is likely determined by age.
According to the study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, causes of mortality in older individuals may be due to two factors.
The first is how likely they are to be infected due to their advanced age, which is reflected in the number of cases, and the second is how likely they’ll be affected by a serious form of the disease because of their advanced age, which is reflected in the mortality rate.
These factors aren’t fully understood for COVID-19, the investigators said.
They chose to analyse data from Italy, Spain and Japan to ascertain any relationship between age, susceptibility and severity since these countries have well recorded, publicly accessible data.
However, despite the wide disparity in mortality rates, the age distribution of mortality — the proportional number of deaths per age category — was comparable for these states, they said.
The researchers developed a mathematical model to compute susceptibility in every age group under different conditions.
They also factored in the estimated human-to-human contact level in each age category, as well as varying restriction levels for outside-home activities in the three nations.
The model indicated the age shouldn’t affect susceptibility but should negatively affect mortality and severity, to explain the fact that the age distribution of mortality is similar between the three countries.
