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Japan is likely to achieve herd immunity to COVID-19 through mass inoculations just months after the planned Tokyo Olympics, even though it has locked in the largest quantity of vaccines in Asia, according to a London-based forecaster.
That would be a blow to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga who has vowed to have enough shots for the people by the middle of 2021, as it trails most important economies in starting COVID-19 inoculations.
“Japan seems to be rather late in the match,” Rasmus Bech Hansen, the founder of British research firm Airfinity, told Reuters.
“They are dependent on importing many (vaccines) from the US and at the moment, it doesn’t look very likely they will get very large quantities of for example, the Pfizer vaccine.”
Hansen said Japan won’t reach a 75 percent inoculation rate, a standard for herd immunity, until about October, about two weeks after the close of the Summer Games.
Japan has arranged to purchase 314 million doses from Pfizer, Moderna Inc and AstraZeneca Plc, which would be more than sufficient for its population of 126 million.
But problems seen in vaccine rollouts elsewhere stir doubt that Japan will get those supplies on time.
Taro Kono, Japan’s vaccine programme leader, said last week it would begin its first shots in February, beginning with 10,000 medical workers, but he walked back on a goal to secure enough vaccine supplies by June.
Japan is particularly vulnerable because its first inoculation program depends on Pfizer doses, which can be at risk of being taken back by US authorities to fight the pandemic there.
“There simply are not enough vaccines for all of the countries that Pfizer made arrangements with,” Hansen said.
“America needs 100 million more Pfizer vaccines to be on the safe side to attain their objectives, and a lot of those 100 million would come from the Japan heap”
Representatives from Pfizer and Japan’s health ministry did not immediately respond to Airfinity’s forecasts. Previously, Pfizer has said that the company was working with Japanese regulators”to create COVID 19 vaccine doses available as quickly as possible to the people in Japan.”
