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The first large real-world study of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to be independently reviewed reveals the shot is extremely effective at preventing COVID-19, in a potentially landmark moment for countries desperate to finish lockdowns and reopen economies.
Up until now, most data on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines has come under controlled conditions in clinical trials, leaving an element of doubt over how outcomes would translate into the actual world with its unpredictable variables.
The research in Israel – two weeks to one of the world’s fastest rollouts, providing a rich source of information – showed two doses of the Pfizer shot cut symptomatic COVID-19 instances by 94% across all age groups, and acute ailments by nearly as much.
The analysis of about 1.2 million individuals also showed a single shot was 57% effective in protecting against symptomatic infections after two weeks, according to the data peer-reviewed and published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday.
The results of the research for the Clalit Research Institute were close to those in clinical trials last year that found two doses were found to be 95% effective.
“We were surprised because we anticipated that in the real-world setting, where cold chain is not kept perfectly and the population is older and sicker, that you won’t get as good results as you got in the controlled clinical trials,” senior study author Ran Balicer told Reuters. “But we did and the vaccine worked as well in real life.”
“We’ve shown the vaccine to be effective in very distinct sub-groups, in the young and at the old in those without a co-morbidities and in people with few co-morbidities,” he added.
The study also suggests the vaccine, developed by U.S drugmaker Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech, is effective against the coronavirus variant first identified in britain. Researchers said they could not provide a particular level of efficacy, but the variant was the dominant version of the virus in Israel at the time of the analysis.
The research did not shed light on how the Pfizer shot will fare against another variation, now dominant in South Africa, that’s been shown to decrease the efficacy of other vaccines.
Of the nine million people in Israel, a nation with universal health care, almost half have received a first dose, and a third have received both doses because the rollout began on Dec. 19.
This made the country a prime location for a real-world study to the vaccine’s ability to stem the pandemic, along with its advanced data capabilities.
The analysis examined about 600,000 vaccinated individuals against the same sized control group of unvaccinated individuals. Researchers at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Medical School and Boston Children’s Hospital also collaborated.
“This is more great news, confirming that the vaccine is about 90% effective at preventing documented infection of any degree of seriousness from 7 days after the second dose,” said Peter English, a British government consultant in communicable disease control.
“Previous recently studied papers from Israel were observational studies. This one used an experimental design known as a case-control research… giving greater assurance that differences between the groups are due to their vaccination status, rather than to some other element.”
It also offered a more comprehensive look at how the vaccine was faring at weekly intervals, while matching people who received the shot to unvaccinated individuals with similar medical histories, gender, age and geographical characteristics.
Other research centers in Israel, including the Weizmann Institute of Science and the Israel Institute of Technology have shared several studies in recent weeks which show the vaccine to work.
At least three studies from Israel have also suggested the vaccine can lessen coronavirus transmission, but the researchers have cautioned that broader studies must be conducted in order to establish clear-cut conclusions.
GOT YOUR IMMUNITY PASS?
The Weizmann Institute’s latest data shows a dramatic drop in illness – which started this month with the first age group vaccinated, the over-60s – has now extended into the two following groups to have finished both doses.
As infections have dropped in Israel, the country has eased its third national lockdown and reopened swathes of its market including malls, shops, schools and several workplaces in the last two weeks.
Recreational venues such as theatres, gyms and hotels opened on Sunday, but are available only to those deemed resistant – holders of a”Green Pass”, a health ministry document available for download only by people seven days after their second dose or people who have recovered from COVID-19.
On Wednesday, Tel Aviv held one of the country’s first live concerts after months of gatherings being banned under coronavirus restrictions.
“That is so exciting, we’re really so pleased to be here today. It’s incredible after one year of staying at home, it’s great to be out to see some culture,” stated 60-year-old Gabi Shamir as she took her seat at the open-air show.
Still, the vaccine’s effectiveness doesn’t mean the country will be pandemic free any time soon. Like elsewhere in the world, a large proportion of the population are under 16 – about a third in Israel – meaning that they can’t yet get vaccinated as there have not been clinical trial results for kids.
“This is certainly not the end of the outbreak,” said Eran Kopel, an epidemiologist at Tel Aviv University. “Once there’s a safe vaccine for the children in Israel and throughout the world we could then begin to say we could be approaching herd immunity.”
